The catfish in the hottest plastic market is risin

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Recently, China was hit by the strongest typhoon "catfish" this year, and the temperature in most areas suddenly reduced, reducing the workload of users. This strong change in the weather seems to reflect the complexity of the international economic situation this year, coupled with a series of measures taken by the state to prepare for the 12th Five Year Plan, which has made the domestic plastic market unstable and ill fated this year

"currency war" shows that Celanese can export market difficulties through the anti-counterfeiting characteristics of its materials

recently, the most hotly debated topic in the international community should be the exchange rate. Influenced by the expectation that the United States will implement quantitative easing monetary policy again, the prices of currencies in many countries have continued to strengthen against the US dollar. The appreciation of RMB in the fourth quarter seems inevitable due to the pursuit of RMB appreciation in Europe, America, Japan and other countries. At present, the RMB is in an embarrassing situation of "internal depreciation and external appreciation". Although many banks have recently raised the deposit reserve ratio, little effect has been achieved. If the RMB exchange rate appreciates too fast, it will inevitably lead to a large number of closures of Chinese export enterprises

in addition, commodity prices have been significantly affected by the continued depreciation of the US dollar. Crude oil prices have risen from $73/barrel before the holiday to $83/barrel after the holiday, an increase of nearly $10. As an important chemical raw material, the price of crude oil is bound to shake the market of plastic raw materials

the market for the "unexpected" interest rate hike by the central bank is still weak

at a time when the exchange rate dispute is in full swing, the "unexpected" interest rate hike by the Central Bank of China has shaken the world economic market. The international market prices of crude oil and bulk commodities have suffered a sharp setback and plummeted. Insiders in the domestic market have also talked about the "sudden decision" of the central bank

it is understood that at present, the overall demand of polyolefin downstream enterprises is relatively stable. After the National Day holiday, with the rapid rise of raw material market prices, raw material prices rushed to a high level, and the prices of downstream end products are difficult to follow up quickly in the short term. Therefore, there is obvious resistance to the high level. From the middle of the year, the market has entered a high-level adjustment stage. The interest rate increase policy of the central bank made the operators feel a little panic at the first time. Liansu futures opened low, and some operators shipped at low prices in the spot market, but the shadow of interest rate increase did not stay in the market for too long. More operators found that the pressure on resources held by sellers in the spot market was not large, and the price of petrochemicals was also strong at a high level. Whether it was price consolidation or lower shipments, the demand level performance was always weak. Therefore, The seller's mentality quickly returned to stability, focusing on price stability and waiting on the market

compared with the wait-and-see atmosphere of the seller's market, the wait-and-see attitude of the downstream buyer's market is not weaker than this. As the weather is getting colder, the operating rate of the factory is low, and the demand for raw materials is small, most businesses are not in a hurry to deal. This wait-and-see situation between buyers and sellers makes it difficult for the whole plastic market to be active

the second round of "energy conservation and emission reduction" has been exposed.

market rumors suggest that the second round of energy conservation and emission reduction policies are planned to be implemented in early November. Since September, the state has strengthened the implementation of "energy conservation and emission reduction" and proposed to strive to complete the phased goals by the end of the "Eleventh Five Year Plan". In October, some regions strengthened the power consumption of high-energy enterprises. The implementation of these policies directly led to the large-scale shutdown of small and medium-sized calcium carbide enterprises, and then won in the output of calcium carbide, striving to bring the revolution of the display industry to a direct embodiment. Relevant statistics show that the monthly output of domestic calcium carbide this year has increased negatively since June. The total domestic output of calcium carbide in August was about 1033600 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 23.2%. Affected by this, the PVC price of calcium carbide method rose in the early stage, and the PVC price in East China rose from 7350 yuan/ton in early September to the highest 8350 yuan/ton in October. However, due to the untimely follow-up of demand, despite the repeated high spot prices, the market trading atmosphere is still general, and the "price is unlimited" feature is relatively obvious, which shows that manufacturers have the main advantages of Brinell and Rockwell methods, and are cautious. We expect that under the influence of "energy conservation and emission reduction", the short-term spot price of PVC can still be maintained at about 8000 yuan/ton. If the downstream demand continues to stagnate and follow up, the medium and long-term trend is difficult to be optimistic

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