Big data of the hottest machinery industry reflect

2022-09-21
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The big data of the machinery industry reflects the economic transformation

the data released by the China Machinery Industry Federation on the 19th showed that the speed of the machinery industry slowed down in 2015, and the market performance of industrial products was significantly differentiated, showing three phenomena: more and less, high and low, fast and slow. What are the characteristics of China's economy under the new normal reflected by the big data of the machinery industry

the growth rate of investment machinery products slowed down -

China's economic power accelerated the transformation

the following two groups of data highlight the severe situation in the machinery industry, but at the same time reflect the fact that the transformation of China's economic growth power accelerated:

-- the added value of the machinery industry in 2015 increased by 5.5% year-on-year, 0.6 percentage points lower than the national average industrial growth rate in the same period, which is rare in recent years

-- during the 12th Five Year Plan period, the average annual growth rate of the machinery industry fell from 23.55% during the 11th Five Year Plan period to 11.91%; The profit growth rate dropped from an average annual growth rate of more than 30% in the "Eleventh Five Year Plan" to an average annual growth rate of 6.45%

"more than 70% of the products in the machinery industry are related to investment products. At present, the investment growth rate of the whole country is declining, economic growth is changing from factor driven to innovation driven, and the reduction of market demand for investment products is the main reason for the slowdown in the growth rate of the machinery industry." Chen Bin, executive vice president of China Machinery Industry Federation, said

"under the background of speed change, structural optimization and power transformation, the slowdown of growth rate is the inevitable result of the market playing a decisive role in resource allocation. The reduction of the machinery industry from high-speed growth for many consecutive years to single digits is a rational return, and it is also the general trend of maintaining high-speed economic growth." Wang Ruixiang, President of China Machinery Industry Federation, pointed out

according to Chen Bin, in order to adapt to the transformation and upgrading of the national economy, machinery products are trying to explore the transformation from investment products to consumer products

the data greatly improves the resolution of the signal, indicating that the industries that are mainly driven by investment are gradually falling back. Taking the growth rate of main business income and profit as an example, the industries that are lower than the average level of the whole industry are mainly engineering machinery, petrochemical general, heavy mining, and metal cutting machine tools. These industries are typical investment product industries in the machinery industry

70% of the output of products decreased and 30% of the output increased -

the market demand structure changed

among the 64 major mechanical products released by the National Bureau of statistics in 2015, only 18 increased, accounting for 28.13%, and 46 decreased, accounting for 71.87%

Chen Bin believes that, unlike the overall and rapid growth during the 11th Five Year Plan period, the biggest feature of PHA in all sub industries of the machinery industry in the late 12th Five Year Plan period is that it can be decomposed by microorganisms in almost any environment (compost, soil, seawater), and is expected to become an environment-friendly high molecular material, which brings hope to solve the "white pollution". The market demand structure has changed, and the main sign of the change is the intensification of differentiation

the specific analysis shows that the output of large-scale investment products such as metallurgical mining equipment, engineering machinery, conventional power generation equipment and ordinary machinery products with serious overcapacity such as various ordinary machine tools, AC motors, wires and cables has decreased significantly; The output of high-power tractors, instruments and meters, environmental protection equipment and instruments, electric forklifts, wind power generation equipment, sports multipurpose passenger vehicles (SUVs) in automobiles and other products closely related to consumption, people's livelihood, energy conservation and emission reduction, and industrial upgrading has maintained growth. The production and marketing situation of industries related to intelligence and green is relatively good

the above changes reflect that China's economic structure has accelerated the adjustment, the proportion of secondary industry has declined, the proportion of tertiary industry has increased, and the machinery industry has gradually adapted to the changes in the market demand structure

under the guidance of market forces and policies -

greater efforts in transformation and upgrading

Chen Bin summarized the current situation of mechanical products with three "yous": they are "more" and "less", they are "high" and "low", and they are "fast" and "slow". Overcapacity of medium and low-end products and few high-end products; Enterprises with market demand develop rapidly, and enterprises without orders grow slowly and even face the risk of bankruptcy

insufficient market demand leads to a decline in orders and low prices of mechanical products. In 2015, the accumulated orders of key associated enterprises in the machinery industry continued the weak trend of the previous year, and the growth rate further fell, and the year-on-year growth was always negative, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 4.02% from January to December; By the end of 2015, the cumulative price index of mechanical products had been below 100% for 48 consecutive months. Among the 142 major mechanical products, 103 have a year-on-year decrease in the cumulative price index, accounting for 72.5%

during the "12th Five Year Plan" period, the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the machinery industry slowed down year by year, falling from 30.35% in 2010 to 9.7% in 2015, indicating that the trend of rapid expansion in the early stage of the industry has slowed down significantly. At the same time, the investment structure has improved. In 2015, the year-on-year growth rate of investment in reconstruction and technological transformation was 9.02 percentage points higher than the average growth rate of industry investment

in the context of increasing downward pressure on the economy, during the "12th Five Year Plan" period, machinery enterprises' ability to actively adapt to market changes continued to improve, endogenous development momentum continued to strengthen, industrial restructuring continued to advance, and independent research and development achievements occurred frequently

Chen Bin pointed out that the central economic work conference defined the economic policy keynote of "seeking progress in stability", and emphasized the main tasks of "removing production capacity, inventory, leverage, cost reduction, making up for weaknesses, and improving the quality and efficiency of the supply system", such as removing the connecting oil pipes between the main engine and oil source control, which is conducive to the machinery industry to promote structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading. With the transformation of China's industrialization to the middle and late stage at the stage of relatively lower structural manufacturing costs (1992-2015), the development of the machinery industry has entered a new period of more gentle growth in the future

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