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2022-07-26
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2018 development trend and market prospect forecast of China's packaging and printing industry

release date: Source: China industry information editor: Yu Jia browsing times: 3732 copyright and disclaimer

core tip: the performance of the packaging and printing sector in 2017 was sluggish. As of December 25, the overall sector index fell by 26.19%, which was higher than the average level of the light industry manufacturing sector. On the whole, the performance of the packaging and printing sector was slightly stable in the first quarter and relatively weak since the second quarter. In the first three quarters of 2017, the revenue of the packaging and printing sector reached 54.942 billion, an increase of 15.59%, achieving a net profit of 5.193 billion, with a growth rate of 9.23%

[China Packaging News] the performance of the packaging and printing sector in 2017 was sluggish. As of December 25, the overall sector index fell by 26.19%, which was higher than the average level of the light industry manufacturing sector. On the whole, the performance of the packaging and printing sector was slightly stable in the first quarter and relatively weak since the second quarter. In the first three quarters of 2017, the revenue of the packaging and printing sector reached 54.942 billion, an increase of 15.59%, achieving a net profit of 5.193 billion, with a growth rate of 9.23%

the packaging and printing sector fell by 26.19%

data source: public information collation

the P/E ratio of the packaging and printing sector

data source: public information collation

the operating revenue of the packaging and printing sector (million yuan)

data source: public information collation

the net profit of the packaging and printing sector (million yuan)

the cost side of the packaging and printing sector continued to rise in 2017, In the case of great pressure on cost transfer, the whole plate is under pressure. In 2017, the return on net assets of Q3 packaging and printing industry was 8%, which was at a historical low in the same period of the industry

historical roe of the packaging and printing sector

data source: public information sorting

there are two reasons for the sluggish performance of the packaging and printing sector since the beginning of the year. On the one hand, the price of upstream raw materials rose, especially the price of box board corrugated paper, which led to a significant increase in the cost of paper packaging. Due to the extreme dispersion of the packaging industry, the cost of small and medium-sized enterprises increased, and the profit space was compressed. On the other hand, the downstream customers of packaging enterprises are relatively large and have strong bargaining power. In the case of general demand this year, the overall bargaining power of packaging material suppliers is weak

affected by the rising prices of raw materials, the gross profit margin of the packaging industry fell sharply. In the first three quarters of 2017, the price of corrugated paper rose by more than 70% year-on-year. The rise of paper price raised the industry cost, and the gross profit margin of leading enterprises such as Yutong technology and Hexing packaging also fell year-on-year. In the fourth quarter of 2016, the price of waste paper began to rise. At the beginning of the year, the merchants prepared goods until the middle of the year. In the third quarter, although the price of paper rose, out of the demand for replenishment, the merchants prepared for the National Day holiday, and the demand expansion drove the price of paper up

in 2018, we judge that the impact of the cost side on profits will be weakened. On the one hand, since the sharp rise in paper prices last year, the price difference between domestic and foreign paper prices has narrowed, and China's imported paper volume has started to rise. From January to October 2017, the import volume of kraft paper, corrugated paper, white board paper and box board paper was 10.8 billion tons respectively. Reply: the installation of the force measurement part was not level before and after, 4.501 billion tons, 5.729 billion tons and 6.948 billion tons, an increase of 27.06%, 740.58%, 6.83% and 29.06% respectively year on year, Especially since june2017, the import volume in a single month has been increasing. The increase in the number of imported paper products has effectively eased the tension of downstream demand. If the paper price continues to rise next year, the import volume is expected to remain high

import volume of paper products (100 million tons) from January to October 2017

data source: public data collation

on the other hand, the decline of industry profitability superimposed the implementation of supervision actions, accelerated the elimination of small and medium-sized enterprises, improved market concentration, and large enterprises gained more market share. After the improvement of the voice, the cost transfer ability of leading enterprises will be improved to some extent. Therefore, the performance of paper packaging enterprises in 2018 is expected to improve and their profitability will be improved

the packaging and printing industry presents a typical pattern of "big industry, small company". The entry threshold of the industry is low, there are many small and medium-sized enterprises, the competition pattern is scattered, the overall supply exceeds demand, and the profitability is declining. The threshold of the domestic packaging industry is very low, with small and medium-sized enterprises accounting for 4. If the load deformation curve needs to be recorded, it exceeds 60%, and the bargaining power with upstream and downstream suppliers is seriously insufficient

many high-performance industries in which packaging enterprises use new materials have regional characteristics and relatively concentrated market share. Even if they are industry leaders, the market has certain limitations. Under the situation of poor industry prosperity, small and medium-sized packaging enterprises are facing the double pressure of rising raw material prices and limited product transportation radius. Their profits continue to decline, the industry supply side continues to squeeze out, and backward production capacity is eliminated. The integration of low-end paper packaging is imperative

take Hexing packaging, the industry leader, as an example. Its main markets are distributed in Central China and South China. The revenue of central China and South China accounted for 33.42% and 32.14% respectively in 2017h1. However, the company's operating revenue in the East China market has increased significantly in recent years, and the revenue of East China accounted for 19% in 2017h1

regional distribution of Hexing packaging revenue

data source: public data collection

affected by consumption upgrading, the demand for medium and high-end packaging is gradually booming. Packaging, as an important carrier of consumer goods brand image, downstream consumer goods will gradually improve their requirements for packaging, and will use high-end packaging to improve the brand image, so as to attract more core consumer groups and grab high sales profits. In recent years, the demand for consumer electronics, cosmetics and other high-end consumer goods is strong, and the demand for packaging paper is huge

the trend of supply side reform and consumption upgrading has created an opportunity for the improvement of market concentration. Packaging is also advancing under the general trend of consumption upgrading. At present, businesses can step up to the high-end direction by purchasing green packages from tmall. The demand for packaging paper for high-end commodities is becoming more and more personalized. The integrated packaging service for high-end customers is gradually launched, and the industry business model is gradually transformed from manufacturing to service, so as to obtain higher added value

intelligent output (10000 sets)

data source: public data collation

monthly year-on-year growth rate of cosmetics increased

data source: public data collation

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